Commercial fleets are driving the hydrogen vehicle market forward

Passenger cars were supposed to lead the hydrogen transition. In practice, it's trucks and buses doing the heavy lifting. Commercial fleets are increasingly becoming the engine of FCEV market growth — and the reasons are straightforward. Hydrogen suits heavy-duty transport well: refuelling takes under ten minutes, energy density per kilogram outperforms batteries for long-range applications, and zero tailpipe emissions help fleets meet tightening air quality regulations.

The underlying technology has been around for decades — PEM fuel cells trace back to NASA experiments in the 1960s. Toyota brought the Mirai to market in 2014 as the first mass-produced consumer FCEV, with Hyundai's Nexo following suit. Around 2020, stronger policy frameworks and the first serious refuelling networks enabled the shift from small-scale pilots to real commercial fleet operations.

The major players — Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Cummins and Daimler with its Mercedes-Benz GenH2 Truck — are all doubling down on heavy-duty applications. Analysts at Precedence Research and Global Market Insights project annual market growth above 25% through the mid-2030s, with commercial vehicles set to grow fastest. Asia-Pacific leads the way, backed by substantial subsidies and government-backed infrastructure roll-out plans.

The obstacles are well-known: fuel cell stacks still cost more than battery systems, hydrogen refuelling infrastructure remains thin, and the vast majority of hydrogen today is still produced from natural gas. That last point remains the elephant in the room — the green promise of FCEVs depends entirely on a shift to genuinely green hydrogen. But the trajectory is clear: as costs fall and infrastructure expands, hydrogen trucks and buses are moving from niche pilots toward everyday workhorses.